A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the country and caused disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Each authors two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will eventually lose but each side has got something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
